Import volume of flake graphite increased sharply

According to the latest statistics of the customs, the import volume of China’s flake graphite from January to February 2023 reached 21600 tons, an increase of 146% compared with the same period in 2022, including 9700 tons in January and 11800 tons in February. In terms of the average import price, due to the different specifications of scales, it basically fluctuates in the range of 3000-4500 yuan/ton.

The export volume of spheroidized graphite from January to February reached 8169 tons, of which 5110 tons were exported in January, while only 3059 tons were exported in February, a year-on-year decrease of 45%.

In terms of export distribution, Japan and South Korea account for more than 90% of the total, and generally flow to several negative electrode material enterprises: Hitachi Chemical, Mitsubishi Chemical, and South Korea POSCO. Among them, the products shipped by POSCO in South Korea are mainly natural graphite negative electrodes. Recently, the shipment volume accounted for 15% of the global natural graphite negative electrode market, which is highly dependent on the export of spheroidized graphite in China and has a large demand.

At present, the output of natural graphite negative electrode materials in China was 174000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 63.2%. Although it was lower than the growth rate of artificial graphite negative electrode, it still showed a rapid expansion trend. However, the total output of domestic natural flake graphite in 2022 was 820000 tons, even lower than that in 2021. The node of rapid expansion of the supply and demand gap appeared in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The supply of natural flake graphite has been hit hard one after another, and the increase in raw material price has reached 60% in more than six months, which has further affected the prices of spheroidized graphite and natural negative electrode. Up to now, the price of 15-20 micron spheroidized graphite has reached 24000 yuan/ton. Enterprises are obviously impacted by the sharp rise in costs, and the price rising trend is obvious, but it is unknown whether spheroidized manufacturers can continue to bear high pressure.

The supply of natural graphite continues to shrink. Combined with the scale import and export data from January to February 2023, many downstream enterprises increased the number of imported scales years ago. However, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the global container freight rate has soared, the congestion of major ports is serious, the ship turnover rate is low, the container ship capacity is scarce, the space is tight, and the raw material transportation cycle is long. Although it can be used as a means of preparing goods under the expected continuous shortage of supply, However, it is difficult to effectively alleviate the problem of insufficient supply in the current period.

“Power rationing”, “epidemic situation” and “environmental protection monitoring” may all be grey rhinoceros events in the future. At present, many negative pole enterprises take energy security issues into account when expanding production capacity, giving priority to clean energy and green power. At present, the global economic policy guidance is carbon reduction and environmental protection. For enterprises, only by following the trend can they achieve long-term stability.