Analysis on the dilemma of imported petroleum coke

In the domestic market of  petroleum coke, Shandong local coking, led by local coking, has decreased significantly since the fourth quarter. As an important part of domestic oil production, the price trend has a great impact on the overall market.

With the reduction of local refining prices, both domestic main refineries and imported coke have been affected to varying degrees. As a supplement to the domestic petroleum coke market, imported petroleum coke accounts for about 1 / 3 of the overall petroleum coke consumption every year, which also has an important impact on the petroleum coke market. At present, compared with domestic petroleum coke, Imported coke is basically upside down, and the trading model of imported coke also determines that it is very easy to get into trouble when the market is in a downward trend.

First of all, let’s take a look at the price changes of domestic coke. The figure below shows the price trend of 3b and 3C with East China and central China as the mainstream models since the fourth quarter. The price covers the price of sulfur coke in local refineries and main refineries. Local refineries are mainly Shandong local refineries, and the main refineries are represented by the price of Sinopec petroleum coke. The current round of price decline began with the decline of local coking prices, which gradually affected the overall market. Up to now, the main refineries have also gradually reduced the quotation of petroleum coke. The average price of petroleum coke in East China 3b is about 2400 yuan/ton, that in Shandong 3b is about 2300 yuan/ton, that in East China 3C is about 2200 yuan/ton, and that in Central China 3b is 2800 yuan/ton.

After knowing the price of domestic petroleum coke, let’s take a look at the situation of imported petroleum coke. Figure 2 shows the change in domestic petroleum coke import volume. It can be clearly found that the petroleum coke import volume in the first three quarters of 2021 is higher than that in previous years. This is mainly due to the surge of petroleum coke import volume this year driven by good domestic demand. After entering the fourth quarter, the import volume has declined, The import volume is basically the same as that in previous years.

With the decrease of domestic imported petroleum coke, let’s take a look at the change of port inventory. The following figure shows the change in domestic port petroleum coke inventory. Theoretically, the decrease of imports should also be reduced because port inventory is mostly imported coke, but the actual situation is just the opposite. Figure 3 shows that the petroleum coke inventory of domestic ports has accumulated recently, This is directly related to the decline of domestic petroleum coke and the slowdown of shipment after the upside-down of imported coke.

Taking the quotation of imported coke from domestic CFR ports in China as an example, the quotation of pellet coke with a sulfur content of 2% and 3% is selected. Compared with the price of domestic petroleum coke, the price of imported coke falls later than that of local refining, and the decline range is also less than that of local refining. Generally speaking, the price of local refining of domestic coke has declined since the market went down, Especially when the imported coke is upside down, the local coking has more price advantages and is relatively more popular with market traders. However, the imported coke is limited by the cost and is forced to bear the pressure of high inventory.

To sum up, the current domestic petcoke market is at a staged low. The Winter Olympics environmental protection policy is a major factor affecting petcoke demand. There are still some regions that have not been finalized, and the uncertain late-stage forecast has led to the maintenance of demand-side customers. Low inventory operation. When the final policy is implemented and before the Chinese New Year, it is expected that there will be a period of downstream voluntarily building inventory to increase inventory. At the same time, the supply side will also take the initiative to remove the inventory. The extent of the price change will depend on the relativity of the inventory of both parties. , And in the upstream and downstream game process, there may be a wave of shipment opportunities for imported coke.