Future development of petroleum coke price

Since May, the operation rate of delayed coking units in domestic refineries has gradually increased. With the commencement and resumption of production of early-stage inspection and repair refineries, the supply of petroleum coke continues to rise, the trading and investment of the demand side market are OK, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the petroleum coke market has eased slightly. With the recovery of domestic refinery supply and the stable operation of downstream carbon enterprises, what will happen to the petroleum coke market in late May?

In May, the operating rate of delayed coking units in domestic refineries rose violently. As of mid-May, the operating rate of delayed coking units rebounded to 59.11%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points month on month compared with the same period in April, and a decrease of 2.67% year-on-year in 2021. With the increase of domestic petroleum coke supply, traders’ and demand side’s willingness to hoard goods weakened, production enterprises mostly purchase on-demand, refinery shipments slowed down, and individual coke prices callback.

As of mid-May, there were 23.1 million tons of delayed coking units under maintenance in China (excluding permanent shutdown and replacement of units), of which 9.6 million tons/year of delayed coking units had maintenance plans in May, affecting the daily output of about 7000 tons; In addition, a 12.3 million T / a delayed coking unit was planned to start in May, and the daily supply of petroleum coke increased by about 11000 tons. On the whole, the domestic petroleum coke supply still showed an upward trend.

Since the second quarter, the overall trading of the domestic calcined coke market has been acceptable, and the unit operating rate of commercial calcination enterprises has continued to rise. As of mid-May, the operating rate of calcination enterprises has increased to about 59%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared with April.

Among them, the operation of low sulfur calcination enterprises is stable, and the price of calcined coke remains high. The shipment of high-quality and low sulfur calcined coke is acceptable, the market demand for cathode materials is strong, and the price of raw materials continues to be high. The price of high-quality and low sulfur calcined coke remains at 12500 yuan/ton. The shipment of ordinary quality low sulfur calcined coke is flat, the market demand for petroleum coke carburizing agent is general, and the receiving capacity of high price calcined coke is limited. The calcined coke price is supported by the cost. At present, the transaction range is 11100-11500 yuan/ton.

The medium and high sulfur calcined coke market carry out order sales. The production of some refineries in Jiangsu is limited due to the epidemic, the production and sales of other enterprises are OK, and the price has a bipolar trend. The shipment of sulfur calcined coke in general goods slowed down slightly. The price of individual enterprises in Shandong was callback 100 yuan/ton. The enterprises were generally enthusiastic about entering the market, implemented contract delivery, and the raw material procurement operation slowed down to maintain the median operation of raw material inventory. The shipment of index goods calcined coke is good, the operation of the downstream prebaked anode and terminal electrolytic aluminum enterprises is stable, and the mainstream transaction price in the market is maintained at 6100-6600 yuan/ton.

From the supply side, the Sinopec refinery delayed the commencement of the coking unit due to the influence of the product oil market, and the short-term improvement of petroleum coke resource supply is limited. With the resumption of production of some refineries of CNOOC, the supply of low sulfur coke resources increased slightly. At present, the inventory in the local refining market is high, the refinery delays the commencement of coking units, and the output of petroleum coke continues to increase. In May, imported coke was concentrated in Hong Kong, mostly medium and high sulfur petroleum coke, and the import market had a certain impact on the domestic petroleum coke market.

On the demand side, the negative electrode market demand is stable, which supports the shipment of low sulfur coke well, the market demand for aluminum carbon has weakened slightly, carbon enterprises maintain low raw material inventory, and their procurement enthusiasm is less than that in the early stage. Traders are cautious about entering the market, which is good for the shipment and sales of refinery petroleum coke, but not enough.

It is expected that in late May, the petroleum coke market will be mainly reorganized and operated, the price of low sulfur coke will remain high, and the price adjustment of the main medium and high sulfur market is limited; The local refining Market flexibly adjusts the coke price according to the shipment, and the price of individual high sulfur coke may still be corrected.

Although the market is changeable, franli can still provide petroleum coke with good quality and appropriate price. If you need anything, please contact us.